6 — Matches Hardik Pandya Missed in IPL 2025 Through Injury
The single most important variable in pre-season IPL probability modelling is not the auction result or the pitch reports — it is which of the competition's marquee players will complete a full 14-match campaign. CricMind's injury-risk database, built on career medical history, physical workload data, and specialist sports medicine parameters, tracks eight players whose full IPL 2026 availability is not confirmed as of March 2026.
IPL 2026 Injury Risk Tracker
| Player | Team | Injury History | Current Status | CricMind Risk Rating | Impact if Absent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hardik Pandya | MI | Ankle (2025), ankle (2023) | Training, fit | Medium-High | −3.8% MI title prob |
| Mohammed Shami | GT | Ankle surgery (2023–24) | Fit, managed load | Medium | −2.4% GT |
| Mitchell Starc | MI | Side strain (2024) | Fit | Low-Medium | −4.1% MI |
| Rishabh Pant | LSG | Road accident rehab (2022–23) | Fully fit | Low | −5.2% LSG |
| Jos Buttler | RR | Quad strain (2025) | Fit | Medium | −2.8% RR |
| Shreyas Iyer | KKR | Back surgery (2023) | Fit, monitoring | Low-Medium | −2.6% KKR |
| Pat Cummins | GT | Workload management | Available | Low | −1.9% GT |
| Mayank Yadav | LSG | Side strain (2024) | Fit | Medium-High | −2.1% LSG |
Hardik Pandya: The Recurring Question
Hardik Pandya has missed 23 IPL matches across his last four seasons due to ankle, back, and side-strain injuries. His career injury rate — 1.6 matches missed per 10 played due to fitness — is the highest of any player in the top-20 IPL impact ratings. He has not completed an uninterrupted 14-match IPL season since 2022.
CricMind's physical workload model applies a "medium-high" risk rating based on: his 44 international matches in the 18 months preceding IPL 2026, two ankle interventions in the last three seasons, and biomechanical data showing higher ground-impact forces during his running action than is typical for all-rounders of his profile.
What [MI](/teams/mi) need from Hardik: A full campaign. In matches where Pandya bowls his four overs and bats at No. 6 (his optimal role), MI's win rate is 71%. When Hardik is absent, that falls to 58%. This 13-point differential is the largest individual availability impact in MI's recent history.
Mohammed Shami: The Long Road Back
Mohammed Shami's ankle surgery in late 2023 sidelined him for six months and required a managed return-to-bowling programme. His IPL 2025 campaign was reduced to 12 of 14 matches on workload advice from NCA medical staff. The good news: those 12 matches produced 20 wickets at economy 8.03 — evidence of full bowling capability when fit.
Gujarat Titans have structured their 2026 bowling plans around a scenario where Shami completes 11–13 matches. The addition of Pat Cummins provides direct coverage for the matches where load management may require Shami's resting.
Rishabh Pant: The Most Complete Recovery Story
Rishabh Pant's return from a near-fatal road accident in December 2022 — through multiple surgeries and 18 months of rehabilitation — to full IPL participation and now franchise captaincy is cricket's most remarkable injury-return story of the decade. CricMind's current risk rating for Pant is "Low" — reflecting that his rehabilitation appears complete and his 2025 season produced no physical warning signals.
The residual concern is not physical but psychological: the workload of a first-time franchise captain combined with the physical demands of wicketkeeping through 14 matches in India's pre-monsoon heat is a compound stress profile. How Pant manages this will be watched closely.
The Injury Probability Matrix
CricMind's model calculates the probability of each high-risk player completing 10+ matches (the threshold for sustained contribution):
| Player | P(10+ matches) | P(Full campaign) | Scenario if Absent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hardik Pandya | 61% | 41% | MI rely on Starc–Bumrah axis alone |
| Mohammed Shami | 74% | 58% | GT promote Cummins as first-change |
| Mitchell Starc | 82% | 71% | MI's bowling balance significantly altered |
| Mayank Yadav | 67% | 52% | LSG's pace threat reduced to Avesh Khan |
How CricMind Adjusts Probabilities for Injury Risk
Every franchise's title probability already incorporates CricMind's injury-risk weighting. MI's 16.2% title probability, for example, includes a 39% probability that Hardik misses 4+ matches — the model does not assume a fully fit squad when computing expected outcomes.
Track player fitness and availability updates throughout IPL 2026 →
FAQ
Q: Who has the highest injury risk in IPL 2026 according to CricMind's model?
A: Among impact players (those with individual win-probability movements above 2%), Hardik Pandya carries the highest injury risk (Medium-High rating) based on his ankle injury recurrence history and high international workload in the 18 months preceding IPL 2026. Mayank Yadav shares this risk category.
Q: How did Mohammed Shami's ankle surgery affect his bowling style?
A: Post-surgery data shows Shami operating at a slightly reduced pace (average 137.8 km/h in 2025 vs 140.2 km/h pre-surgery) but with improved seam presentation and more consistent late swing. The reduction in raw pace has been partially offset by greater control — his economy improved from 8.41 to 8.03 across the same comparison period.
Q: Does Rishabh Pant still show effects of his 2022 accident in his keeping and batting?
A: Medical and performance data from Pant's 2024–2025 international appearances shows no statistically significant deficit compared to his pre-accident level. His keeping in particular — which requires explosive lateral movements — was the last skill area to fully return, and national selectors confirmed in late 2025 that he met all fitness benchmarks for the highest level of T20 cricket.